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Sunday, February 05, 2006

Wetterling vs Tinklenberg Comments on MNPublius


El has almost no support in the 6th. I dont know anyone who is the least bit excited about him.

Bettcha Patty raises a million bucks in two weeks.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 31, 2006 11:17 AM

I think El will be able to bounce off gop attacks better, and he gives them less ammo in the first place. He is for civil unions, pro-gun rights, wants to address health care issues. This should play pretty good with the moderates in the 6th.

At the same time Patty could really take it this time as well. She is more known then any of the gop people by far. People trust Wetterling.. Mark Kennedy slimed her to squeak out a win.

Perhaps let El go for this one. Patty should try in 2008 if El doesn't make it to D.C.

Posted by: Demrock6 | January 31, 2006 12:00 PM

If Tinklenberg favors the Federal Marriage Amendment in it's current version, he opposes civil unions and supports an effort to marginalize gay citizens in the federal constitution. Tinklenberg's campaign has made no effort to correct the record in the press. So it seems that he wants to play both ways on this issue.

Patty has more cash on hand than El does. As far as elections go, she can only spend it on another federal race. That leaves out any help on the Gubernatoral side.
Patty has a campaign in place that is composed of some very good operators with federal campaign experience and Washington know-how. Very important. El will lose support the moment she announces and the DC money and support will dry up.
Patty has about 100% name recognition in the Sixth. El is still working on his which means he'll be spending money.
Patty knows the district well, as does some of her campaign people. She walks into this like a person that's been in it for a year.

So, timing is not an issue.
El can be a good soldier and bow out, throw his support around Patty and get the opportunity to run with Hatch.

Posted by: StPaul_DFLer | January 31, 2006 12:28 PM

Patty went back on her word of supporting El and avoiding a primary. This really hurts her credibility. That's why us Labor guys (and Oberstar, Peterson, Luther) are going to stick with El. He's more viable anyway. And he and Patty have about the same cash on hand.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 31, 2006 03:19 PM

Peterson supports the Federal Marriage Amendment - and when HRC lobbyists visited his office, he said that he didn't believe gays lived in his district. That is one of the most moronic statements I've ever heard from a congresscritter.

If going back on your word hurts you - why did all of you and the three Congressmen support Wellstone in 2002?

If El is more viable, why is he name recognition only at 44% and Patty is sitting at 97% in the district? If El is more viable, why is the DCCC pulling out and switching to Patty? One would think that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee who sole job is to support Democratic candidates for Congress would understand viability.
As far as cash goes, you're wrong. Patty is far ahead and has proven that she can raise money.

Posted by: StPaul_DFLer | January 31, 2006 04:30 PM

I informally canvassed the DFL activists in my CD6 exurban district. These are pretty moderate folks in term of DFL activists,some corprate types, a few gun owners and some self employed, so conventional wisdom would give him pretty strong support with this crowd. I couldnt find one who was ready to go out and volunteer for Tinklenberg.
Everybody said they would vote for him if he was the D on the ticket. A few of them couldnt bring themselves to vote for Janet Robert in 02.

Patty will have an absolute army of volunteers, El would end up having to pay for it.
I think El kind of wrecked his chances when he did his "I'm a different kind of democrat" press confernce. He's been trying to prove he's not a DINO ever since. That stuff may play well to the independant/ moderate to slightly conservative elements in the district, but he turned off the base. With out the base, his ground battle will be anemic at best.

Patty won in several precincts that went for Bush , so at least some republicans were willing to split their ticket when she was on it. I very much doubt it was Dems crossing over to vote for Bush. Fact is she has a certain magic, cause it wasnt a well oiled campaign machine that threatened Kennedy in 04. We can count on the machine being perfectly tuned this time around.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 31, 2006 05:27 PM

I understand from friends in the DoT that when Tinklenberg was transport commissioner, there was talk that he brought in a bunch of his people, did poorly, and left with his people and thicker wallets at the end of the Ventura admin. There was a perception that he wasn't as into the mission of developing MN transportation infrastructure as he was into more immediate gains.

He opposes legal abortion and supports a federal gay marriage ban.

While I think we need more Methodists in politics, especially on the left, I am convinced that Wetterling would be a better Congressperson for Minnesota and for America than Tinklenberg.

Posted by: Jerad | January 31, 2006 07:01 PM

Wetterling is proving to be not very smart. She couldnt even beat a very weak mark Kennedy. She is a political oppurtunist. using the disappearance of her son for political gain. She and Cindy Sheescam go hand in hand.

Posted by: Buchananite | January 31, 2006 11:39 PM

The post by Buchananite shows what kind of assholes are willing to spread lies for the Republicans. Here's a take on the poll I was talking about earlier. It is lifted from Checks and Balances:

In a poll of 400 Sixth Congressional Districts residents with a margin of error of +/-4%, Wetterling beats all comers in a head-to-head match-up. The poll was weighted heavily in favor of Republican voters with 40% represented and only 28% being Democratic voters. Of the respondents 42% percent self-identified as Conservative, 24% self identified as Liberal and 29% self-identified as Moderates.

Now we know her critics will be quick to refer to Wetterling as a candidate who sticks her finger in the wind to determine her direction or as a candidate who needs a poll to help her make a decision. But we will ask with a straight face what candidate does not poll and we will say that particular candidate will likely always be just a candidate and not a officeholder.

In hard name identification Wetterling polled at 76% while Elwyn Tinklenberg barely made double digits at 15%. In the break down:

Of the respondents, only 4% had never heard of Wetterling and 22% did not know enough to form an opinion, compared to 45% had never heard of Tinklenberg, and of those who had, 40% did not know enough to form an opinion.

At the beginning of the survey respondents were asked their preferences in head-to-head match-ups against the field of Republicans and the first cut is as follows:

Patty Wetterling 43%

Michele Bachmann 38%

Patty Wetterling 41%

Phil Krinkie 33%

Patty Wetterling 41%

Jim Knoblach 34%

Elwyn Tinklenberg 22%

Michele Bachmann 35%

Elwyn Tinklenberg 21%

Phil Krinkie 25%

(The Tinklenberg/Knoblach question was not included to conserve time.)

One interesting facet of this poll was that Wetterling out polled her Republican opponents significantly with Independents while Tinklenberg trailed the Republicans.

The poll then retested respondents after informing them of issues Wetterling opponents may use as negative attacks during a campaign, including abortion, guns, reentering the 6th race and going back on her word – and found no footing on those issues. This in effect is an attempt to push poll. As they tested potential attack points it was clear nothing moved these possible voters from their prior positions and even improved Wetterling’s support and diminished her opponents support.

We have said before that the negative attacks against Wetterling in 2004 may have created fertile ground for a backlash effect that any candidate directly or through surrogates may mount. Wetterling challengers should heed this warning, attack Wetterling at your own peril.

Patty Wetterling 43%

Michele Bachmann 36%

Patty Wetterling 42%

Phil Krinkie 31%

(The Wetterling/Knoblach question was not included to conserve time.)

Posted by: StPaul_DFLer | February 1, 2006 01:31 PM

With the poll numbers I posted above and the finances I'm posting below, would it not be insane for Patty not to run and the 6th CD DFL should be behind her all the way.

El does not fair well anywhere. The guy just didn't work.

It also explains why the Republicans are scared of her. As Buchannite shows, they are willing to lie and throw mud at her before she even decides. He should be paying attention to that freakshow they got going on GOP side.

Elwyn Tinklenberg – Democrat

Total receipts - $302,622

Total expenditures - $117,993

Cash on-hand - $184,628

Patty Wetterling – Democrat

U.S. Senate Total receipts - $965,855

U.S. Senate Total expenditures - $676,620

U.S. Senate Cash on-hand - $289,233

Posted by: StPaul_DFLer | February 1, 2006 01:36 PM

DFLer..what lie did I tell about Wetterling?..inform me please. These early polls mean nothing.. I find it very hard to believe that conservatives will support her. She and her ilk think she is untouchable because jacob went missing..she is fair game.

Posted by: Buchananite

It will be an interesting debate between Wetterling and Tinklenberg. On the abortion issue, Wetterling should be focusing on Emergency Contraception, family planning, abstinence only - condoms don't work sex ed, stem cell research and in vitro fertilization. These posts above were written before Elwyn Tinklenberg pulled his tacky to the extreme stunt of upstaging the message of Patty Wetterling's press conference.

Tinklenberg has now said on the record that he plans to abide to the DFL endorsement. If he doesn't get the endorsement, and runs in the primary, all these self-righteous statements he made will work against him.

There are more comments about Labor being peeved at Wetterling here.