counter statistics

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Dueling Spin on Poll Results

MN Publius and the Drama Queen duke it out over the latest poll results on the Minnesota Senate Race.

MDE commenters weigh in:

# Zack Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 11:45 am

A four percent lead is not “comfortable”. And Coleman is below 50% in both matchups. That is the sign of an incumbent in trouble.

Your spin is pathetic.
# Trompo Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 12:14 pm

Pathetic is an understatement. Let’s look at the recent polls from Rasmussen and Survey USA:

Coleman–Franken

May 14 Poll: 54-32 Coleman (22 point lead)
July 30 Poll: 49-42 Coleman (7 point lead)
Sept. 6 Poll: 46-41 Coleman (5 point lead)

Coleman–Ciresi

May 14 Poll: 52-29 Coleman (23 point lead)
July 30 Poll: 48-42 Coleman (6 point lead)
Sept. 6 Poll: 46-42 Coleman (4 point lead)

Do we need to draw some line graphs here?

I can only imagine what the headlines would say if the polls had substituted Wes for Norm. Good lord. This is so laughable.
# Zack Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 12:15 pm

Also, Franken’s unfavorable’s are only ONE POINT higher than Coleman. This is NOT statistically significant. The poll has a margin of error of 4.5%, meaning Coleman’s unfavs could easily 2 or 3 points higher than Franken’s.

Essentially, this poll means that Franken and Coleman’s unfavs are the same.
# MplsSteve Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 12:20 pm

Michael-

I hate to agree with the DFL on anything but I don’t see a 4-5 point lead as being “comfortable” either.

in fact, it’s a little alarming that Franken polls as well as he does.

0 comments: