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Friday, January 04, 2008

Good Blog Analysis of Iowa Caucus Results

From the left, Spot makes some good points with his usual dog's sense of humor. On Truth v Machine Gary Miller does better at predicting the Iowa caucus results than Bob Novak.

Former Mark Kennedy campaign manager Pat Shortridge writes:

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My $.02 on Iowa: Be Afraid
January 4th, 2008 by Pat Shortridge

Be Very Afraid.

Taking aside the winning and losing candidates, both in real terms and when measured against expectations, the numbers are downright scary.

According to the estimates I’ve seen, Democrats had approximately 240,000 caucus attendees last night; Republicans had about 125,000. That’s a stone’s throw from a 2-to-1 advantage.

Here’s where it gets really scary, when we consider some history. The last time both parties seriously contested and competed in Iowa at the same time was 1988. That year, 125,000 Democrats and 84,000 Republicans turned out, basically a 3-to-2 Democrat advantage.

In that fall’s general election, Michael Dukakis carried Iowa by 10 points over George Bush 41, one of only 10 states The Duke carried nationally.

One election does not a historical trend make, but we on the Right would be fools to ignore the reality all around us. Iowa was a virtual tie in 2000 and 2004. Yesterday, Democrats turned out twice as many caucus attendees as Republicans, this following on the heels of a particularly bad 2006 election for Iowa Republicans.

It’s time to stop kidding and spinning ourselves. I’ve said before and will say again: If we have the same people, in the same places, doing the same things, we are going to get a very painful result.

There's also debate between the different Truth v Machine posters on the GOP Presidential Candidates.