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Sunday, July 20, 2008

Field Poll Says Majority of California Residents Oppose Constitutional Amendment to Ban Gay Marriage

San Diego Tribune:

SACRAMENTO – Proposition 8, the constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage in California, is opposed by 51 percent of likely voters with 42 percent in favor, according to a new Field Poll.

AdvertisementThose results put the proposed ban in a politically perilous position in the Nov. 4 election, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the nonpartisan Field Poll.
“Starting out behind is usually an ominous sign for a proposition,” DiCamillo said. “Over 90 percent of propositions that start out behind get taken down.”

Typically, ballot measures start out ahead, but become less popular as the opposition campaign begins raising questions and creating doubt, he said.

Proposition 8
Limit on Marriage Constitutional Amendment “provides that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California.”


51% | 42%

Source: Field Poll

Proposition 8 has attracted nationwide interest, with some analysts estimating that it will generate more than $30 million in total campaign spending.

The poll is the first to question voters using the measure's exact language. But the results are similar to a Field Poll on the same topic in May, shortly after the California Supreme Court overturned laws that prohibited same-sex marriage.

That poll found that for the first time, a slim majority of California voters supported same-sex marriages being legal, 51 percent to 42 percent.

The new poll found a predictable partisan division: Republicans support the constitutional ban 68 percent to 27 percent while Democrats oppose it 63 percent to 30 percent. Nonpartisan and minor-party members are even more strongly against it, 66 percent to 27 percent.

DiCamillo said he was not surprised that unaffiliated voters opposed Proposition 8 more than Democrats because those voters tend to be younger than Democrats or Republicans.

This and other polls generally have found that support for same-sex marriage tends to be stronger among younger voters. “I think they are more open and tolerant on these issues,” DiCamillo said.

However, the recent poll found the opposition to the ban strongest among voters between 50 and 64 years old, with 57 percent opposed and 38 percent in support.


DavidD said...

I suspect this is how it would turn out in Minnesota, too. I have a lot of faith in the people of our state.