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Sunday, August 09, 2009

Empirical Evidence: McCain-Palin/Anderson Votes Common in the 6th CD

Regular commenter on Dump Bachmann writes:

"Could this be the year where a Ross Perot actually hurts the conservative candidate instead of the liberal?"


Anderson helped Tinklenberg . . . more votes were siphoned from Bachmann to Anderson than from Tinklenberg.

A conservative and vocal IP candidate (socially conservative, libertarian leaning) would be a positive for the DFL candidate in the 2010 race.

How do I know that Anderson took more votes from Bachmann than Tinklenberg?

Let's just say that the Franken/Coleman recount was illuminating in more ways than one. It allowed the Dem ballot recount observers to see exactly how the votes were split. The Dems sent in a lot of VERY bright observers -- many with near photographic or photographic memories (such as myself), and ability to count just more than the Franken votes as they scanned each ballot. Hey, the majority of people with IQs above 160 are Democrats (they don't suck down the Republican lies), and that becomes a huge advantage when it comes to things like observing a recount.

Anderson took many more votes from Bachmann than he took from Tinklenberg. There were a HEAP of ballots that voted McCain/Palin and Anderson . . . they split because they couldn't hold their noses and vote for Bachmann after her Hardball gaffe. That's why he got 10% without spending any money or running a real campaign.

Clark needs to use EVERY embarrassing Bachmann "macaca" moment (and there are literally dozens of them), put them into TV ads and youtube (most are already there) and run them over and over and over. Tinklenberg didn't do that; he didn't run an aggressive campaign, and it cost him. A conservative (Christian fundamentalist, please) independent candidate would be GREAT!

Theme of the Clark campaign: "Let's put an honest, sane person into the seat -- one who works for the people of CD 6".

People who don't think before they speak are amusing to watch, but they shouldn't be our political leadership.

Taxpaying Liberal does the analysis:

To view the real effect of the IP vote you should look at the results of the up ticket candidates.

In the 2008 race this means looking at Obama and Tinklenberg compared to McCain- Bachmann.

I did have time to go to the SOS website so I may be off a little on the totals but Tinkleberg received more votes than Obama by a couple of percentage points. Bachmann underperformed McCain by about 7% Anderson underperformed Barkley by almost 10%.

What does this mean? It means that El got the entire base and almost no vote defected to Bachmann and 7% of the Republican vote defected from McCain to IP.

If IP had received 3% more vote it is likely we would be Bachmann free.

Bachmann knows this. That may be why you see her courting the “Ron Paul” vote.

Now I know that some will look at this and say that if Anderson wasn’t in the race then those McCain drop offs would have moved to El and maybe you’re right, but they would have had to vote over 2 to 1 in that direction and that is unlikely to have occurred.

And if Bachmann had received 54 to 55% of the vote instead of the 50.04% her seat would be considered safe or safer this election and far less likely to be as much of a target has it clearly will be this election.

For those of you who think that it was an IP voter that voted for Anderson let me once again go to the up ticket and compare Anderson to Barkley. Barkley received almost double (once again I didn’t look up the exact number for this post) the votes for Anderson. Here again is an example of major ticket splitting.

There are a lot of factors involved and its fun to run the numbers and speculate about them.
But the biggest factor is as Amy proved the candidate that is the most important factor. Bachmann can be beat and running a good race against her and being for something are going to be the biggest reason we win or lose.
taxpaying liberal


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